The World Bank has projected an average economic growth of 3.6% for Nigeria between 2025 and 2026, attributing this outlook to the Federal Government's ongoing reforms. This projection was outlined in the January 2025 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, released on Thursday.
The report highlighted that the recent economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of controversial tax policies, have boosted business confidence.
According to the World Bank:
“In Nigeria, GDP growth reached an estimated 3.3% in 2024, primarily driven by the services sector, including financial and telecommunications services. Macroeconomic and fiscal reforms have improved business confidence. Additionally, the central bank tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation and a weakened naira.
“The fiscal deficit narrowed, supported by higher revenues stemming from the removal of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, exchange rate unification, and better revenue administration. Growth in Nigeria is expected to strengthen to an average of 3.6% in 2025-26, with inflation anticipated to decline gradually, boosting consumption and further supporting growth in the services sector.”
In a regional context, the World Bank forecasted that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would rise to 4.1% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, driven by easing financial conditions and declining inflation. These projections were revised upward by 0.2% for 2025 and 0.3% for 2026, reflecting better growth expectations in nearly half of SSA economies.
For Nigeria, while oil production is forecast to grow over the period, it is expected to remain below OPEC quotas. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed a marginal rise in Nigeria’s oil production in 2024, with daily average output increasing from 1.333 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October to 1.486 mbpd in November. However, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) later reported a 1.35% decline in December 2024, with average daily production falling to 1.667 mbpd.
Cumulatively, Nigeria's oil production in December 2024 was 51.69 million barrels, a 1.9% increase compared to November’s 50.71 million barrels. Despite these gains, the World Bank cautioned that per capita income growth would remain weak throughout the forecast period.
