According to Opta Analyst, Real Madrid’s odds of advancing to the Champions League semi-finals stand at a mere 4%. The reigning champions suffered a crushing 3-0 defeat to Arsenal on Tuesday night at the Emirates. Arsenal’s standout performance featured two breathtaking free-kicks from Declan Rice and a clever finish by Mikel Merino, securing them a substantial advantage heading into the second leg at the Bernabeu.

Opta now estimates Arsenal’s chances of reaching the semi-finals at an overwhelming 96%. The Gunners haven’t appeared in this stage of the competition since 2009, when Manchester United knocked them out. Meanwhile, Inter Milan, who edged Bayern Munich 2-1 in their quarter-final first leg, hold an 82.4% likelihood of progressing to the final four, per Opta’s calculations.