In response to the rising price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced an increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol.

In an email obtained on Friday, the refinery disclosed that petrol at its loading gantry will now cost N955 per litre, reflecting a pricing adjustment. Marketers purchasing between 2 million and 4.99 million litres will pay N955 per litre, while those buying 5 million litres or more will pay N950 per litre.

This marks a 6.17% increase from the N899.50 per litre holiday discount offered last December. The new pricing structure applies to all unsold stock as of the effective time, with pending volumes also repriced accordingly.

The statement titled “Communication on PMS Price Review” outlined:

• Previous Prices:
  • 2 million–9.99 million litres: N899.50
  • 10 million litres & above: N895
• New Prices:
  • 2 million–4.99 million litres: N955
  • 5 million litres & above: N950

The revised prices take effect from 5:30 PM today, as per the notification.

An oil and gas analyst, Olatide Jeremiah, highlighted the ripple effect this change could have on the downstream petroleum sector. He noted that private depots, major marketers, and independent marketers are likely to adjust their rates in response to the new pricing.

“Dangote Refinery’s influence on fuel pricing is significant, and this increase will likely push up petrol pump prices across the country,” Jeremiah explained. He further attributed the hike to the Brent crude price of $81.84 per barrel, the highest so far in 2025.

On Thursday, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, reaffirmed that fluctuations in crude oil prices remain the primary driver of petrol pump price adjustments, emphasizing that the downstream sector is fully deregulated, leaving the government out of price-setting decisions.

The increase is expected to have widespread implications for consumers and the petroleum industry alike.

The World Bank has projected an average economic growth of 3.6% for Nigeria between 2025 and 2026, attributing this outlook to the Federal Government's ongoing reforms. This projection was outlined in the January 2025 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, released on Thursday.

The report highlighted that the recent economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of controversial tax policies, have boosted business confidence.

According to the World Bank:
“In Nigeria, GDP growth reached an estimated 3.3% in 2024, primarily driven by the services sector, including financial and telecommunications services. Macroeconomic and fiscal reforms have improved business confidence. Additionally, the central bank tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation and a weakened naira.

“The fiscal deficit narrowed, supported by higher revenues stemming from the removal of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, exchange rate unification, and better revenue administration. Growth in Nigeria is expected to strengthen to an average of 3.6% in 2025-26, with inflation anticipated to decline gradually, boosting consumption and further supporting growth in the services sector.”

In a regional context, the World Bank forecasted that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would rise to 4.1% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, driven by easing financial conditions and declining inflation. These projections were revised upward by 0.2% for 2025 and 0.3% for 2026, reflecting better growth expectations in nearly half of SSA economies.

For Nigeria, while oil production is forecast to grow over the period, it is expected to remain below OPEC quotas. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed a marginal rise in Nigeria’s oil production in 2024, with daily average output increasing from 1.333 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October to 1.486 mbpd in November. However, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) later reported a 1.35% decline in December 2024, with average daily production falling to 1.667 mbpd.

Cumulatively, Nigeria's oil production in December 2024 was 51.69 million barrels, a 1.9% increase compared to November’s 50.71 million barrels. Despite these gains, the World Bank cautioned that per capita income growth would remain weak throughout the forecast period.